Regional players including Iran are engaged in a bitter struggle for power that has erupted in Iraq following the departure of the United States, an expert says.
Hasni Abidi, director of the Study and Research Centre for the Arab and Mediterranean World in Geneva, tells swissinfo.ch attacks on the capital Baghdad that claimed 79 lives are a clear sign of dissatisfaction with both the political process left in place by the Americans, and the government of Shiite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.
On Tuesday, the Islamic State of Iraq, an umbrella group for insurgents linked to al-Qaeda, claimed responsibility for the most of the attacks which it said were carried out in support of Sunni prisoners.
Tensions are also reaching breaking point within the government with al-Maliki having ordered the arrest of Sunni Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi on terrorism charges, and asking parliament to fire Sunni Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq.
Meanwhile, al-Hashemi’s Iraqiya political party is boycotting parliament and mulling whether to pull out of the ruling coalition altogether, while a political party loyal to the radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr –a member of al-Maliki’s ruling coalition – has called for parliament to be dissolved and new elections.
In an email response to swissinfo.ch’s questions, Abidi outlined the massive challenges facing Iraq’s fragile democracy.
swissinfo.ch: Baghdad has been hit in recent days by a series of coordinated attacks – was this a predicable response to the withdrawal of American forces?
Hasni Abidi: Yes. The moment was chosen by several groups to mark out their territory and to send two messages: “We are against the political process initiated by the Americans. We are against the Maliki government which is supported by Iran and came to power thanks to the occupation.”
But the radical jihadist-type groups are also profiting from the situation. In perpetrating the attacks, they take the gloss off the end of the American mission.
swissinfo.ch: Is this the beginning of the real struggle for power after the American withdrawal?
H.A.: In the end, the Americans have an experience of Iraq and better knowledge of the country which will enable them to become the arbitrator of a very fragile balance of forces in Iraq. Their departure will create a military void but also intensifies the struggle between political forces.
swissinfo.ch: Some Iraqis accuse “neighbouring countries” of exploiting the conflicts between the diverse factions in power (the Saudis with the Sunnis, and the Iranians with the Shiites). Do you share this point of view? If so, is the worst yet to come?
H.A.: Since 2003, Iraq has been an influential zone among regional players. Iran has used Iraq to push back against US plans to strike its nuclear facilities for fear of reprisals against its soldiers in Iraq. Saudi Arabia is conscious of the fact that an Iraq which is close to Iran will necessarily be hostile towards Riyadh. So each of these countries is trying to put
its own networks in place. Turkey as well has interests in Iraq because of the Kurdish issue.
swissinfo.ch: Just how fragile is the Iraqi government? Is there a possibility it could fall?
H.A.: If both the Sadrists and the Kurds pull out then the government will no longer have a reason for being. Today, the rallying cry is to dissolve the parliament and call early elections. It remains to be seen which game the Iranians will play to support their man. Maliki is beholden to the Iranians who imposed him as prime minister against the advice of everyone.
swissinfo.ch: Does the US still have influence? What role can or should the international community play in Iraq?
H.A.: Yes, but less than before. [US Vice President] Joe Biden is still involved with Iraq. Washington maintains its strategic ties with the Kurds. They also trained American soldiers and hope to have gained their trust. It is difficult to measure the political influence of the Americans after their withdrawal, their actual presence in the country is an unknown entity.
Officially, the United Nations is present, it is charged with assisting the Iraqi government. The challenges in ensuring that this country does not fall into civil war are enormous. The biggest absentees are Europe and the Arab countries. The Iranians were quick to profit from this absence. It’s true that under George W. Bush, the Americans had a monopoly in Iraq.
swissinfo.ch: Given the “political” record of the last nine years, do you think that a democratic regime is still achievable in Iraq or should we expect a return to an authoritarian power in Baghdad?
H.A.: The war in Iraq suffered from a lack of transparency. It was launched against the advice of the UN Security Council and worse, for unconfirmed reasons; links with al-Qaeda and a supposed nuclear weapons programme. None of that was discovered. That said, the great merit of the intervention was getting rid of the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein. It is still too early to say if democracy is permanently installed in the country, but the mistakes made by Mr Maliki are far from reassuring.
Hasni Abidi is a political scientist and specialist of the Arab-speaking world.
He is director of the Geneva-based Study and Research Center for the Arab and Mediterranean World, which was established in September 2000.
His work focuses on political developments in the Middle East and North Africa; he has published numerous works and articles.